Citizens in Charge

Now, finally, a story in the Seattle Times reports the latest Elway Poll results for Initiative 517. Unlike the 40 point closing from YES to NO on I-522, I-517 showed only a nine-point tightening from last month’s results. The Elway Poll was conducted Oct. 13-15, before any TV or radio advertising by the NO side, and found 52 percent support against only 25 percent opposition, and 23 percent undecided.

But the Seattle Times story spun the Elway Poll by combining it with a Moore Information survey, conducted Oct. 23-25, reporting that, “Two recent polls indicate Tim Eyman’s initiative on initiatives, I-517, is losing ground.”

Of course, the statement is probably correct. The YES side usually starts with a lead in polling and almost always loses ground late in the campaign, rather than gaining it. Moreover, with opponents advertising on television and radio against no ads being purchased by the YES side on 517, one would expect the measure to be losing ground or at best holding its own.

But still it seems strange to combine these polls to make that argument. Why?  Because (a) the Elway Poll showed surprisingly little ground lost, especially compared to the other ballot measure, and (b) the Moore Information poll actually shows I-517 gaining momentum, not losing it.

The Moore Information survey of 500 state voters shows I-517 down 33 to 40 percent, overall. But when the results are separated by those who already voted (before having seen the ad blitz by opponents) and those yet to vote (having seen the No spots on TV and radio), it bizarrely turns out that those NO messages had a very unintended impact, they apparently increased the YES vote by 7 percentage points and lowered the NO vote by 11 points.

Huh?  Does it make any sense that the NO side would be winning by 20 points among those who voted before their the ad barrage, but be winning by only 2 percentage points among those still to cast a ballot?

It is also odd that 24 percent of those who told Moore Information that they had already voted, either did not recall how they voted on I-517 or refused to say.

Next Tuesday night, thankfully, we’ll know whether and how much Initiative 517 has or hasn’t lost ground. Perhaps we’ll never know what goes on in the minds of pollsters.


Seattle Times: Poll suggests Eyman Initiative 517 losing ground
http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2013/10/29/polls-suggest-eymans-initiative-517-losing-ground/

Moore Information survey
http://www.moore-info.com/my_polls/moore-insight-wa-i517-shaky-ground/